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By Tetlock, Husbands, Jervis, Stern, Tilly. The U.S. public no longer regards the Eastern Bloc as the principal threat to national security. Yet even with the undeniable thaw in the Cold Warmany of the old scenarios for "World War III" remain as plausible as they were in the past, and new sources of instability could arise from ethnic conflicts, economic competition, or other sources.
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